Democrats won Texas's top races, and that could scramble the 2028 map for Republicans

Democrats won Texas's biggest statewide races on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Even Fox News called them historic victories in the governor and Senate races. That's a state where Democrats have been mostly shut out of statewide office for decades.

The margins weren't close, at least according to MS NOW. It reports that Gina Hinojosa beat three-term Gov. Greg Abbott by about seven points. It also reports that James Talarico beat Attorney General Ken Paxton by about 12 in the Senate race. We haven't confirmed those exact margins in an independent source yet, so treat them as MS NOW's numbers for now.

Texas wasn't a one-off. A Third Way analysis quoted on Election Law Blog says Senate Democrats flipped six red states: Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. They also held Georgia. Third Way, a centrist Democratic group, says those candidates ran an average of 21 points ahead of Kamala Harris's 2024 margins. The Los Angeles Times reports that Democrats also flipped House and state legislative seats in red strongholds that haven't been in play in a presidential race in years.

Why it matters for 2028

The math is simple. Texas has 40 electoral votes. Add them to the 226 Harris won in 2024 and Democrats would have 266, four short of 270. Under that scenario, MS NOW notes, any single swing state puts a Democrat in the White House.

For Republicans, it's the reverse. Lose Texas and you'd have to sweep nearly every other competitive state. The LA Times reports the GOP now expects to spend more money in places like Texas that it used to count on. Every dollar spent defending Houston suburbs is a dollar not spent in North Carolina or Iowa. Politico's headline put it bluntly: the midterms blew open the 2028 map, and Republicans are panicking.

Part of this was self-inflicted. Fox News reports that the Republican redistricting push, meant to lock in more seats, backfired during historic House losses.

The caution flag

Midterm flips don't automatically become presidential wins. Kansas elects Democratic governors pretty regularly but hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Talarico said much the same himself. In remarks MS NOW attributes to an interview with Politico, he warned against assuming Texans suddenly became partisan Democrats. He said voters wanted change and urged every 2028 candidate to compete in Texas. We haven't independently confirmed that quote.

Georgetown's Joshua Huder told MS NOW that holding these gains may come down to the ground game: actually knocking on doors and talking to rural voters instead of just pouring cash into TV ads. That applies to both parties.

What's next

The new officeholders take over in January. The 2028 primaries start in roughly 14 months, and candidates in both parties now have to decide whether Texas is a battleground. If it is, Iowa, Ohio and other states that went blue on Tuesday could be in play too. That would make this the most competitive map in at least two decades.